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Imprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Arctic Sea Ice-Climate System

Miles, Martin W. 1 ; Divine, Dmitry 2 ; Furevik, Tore 3 ; Jansen, Eystein 4 ; Moros, Matthias 5 ; Ogilvie, Astrid E. J. 6

1 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway / Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, CO
2 Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso, Norway
3 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
4 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
5 Baltic Sea Research Institute, Rostock, Germany
6 Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO

Recent satellite observations suggest an Arctic sea ice–climate system in transformation (Johannessen et al., 1999; Serreze et al., 2007). However, its long-term natural behaviour is poorly known, particularly on multidecadal time scales. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive set of the longest observational records of sea ice, together with numerical model data. We find multidecadal 60–80 yr fluctuations to be a robust feature, most pronounced in the Greenland Sea. We demonstrate coherence with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Kerr, 2005) during the instrumental record, including the present sea ice– / AMO+ phase. Similar behavior through previous centuries is strongly suggested from historical and paleo proxy sea-ice records from the region.

These results have implications for understanding the present and future state of the arctic sea ice-climate system. The AMO is one plausible mechanism that may potentially decelerate the drastic losses in arctic sea ice observed in recentmost years.

Johannessen, O. M., Shalina, E. V. and Miles, M. W., 1999, Satellite evidence for an arctic sea ice cover in transformation: Science, v. 286, p. 1937–1939.

Kerr, R. A., 2005. Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?: Science, v. 309, p. 41–43.

Serreze, M. C., Holland, M. M. and Stroeve, J. C., 2007. Perspectives on the Arctic’s shrinking sea-ice cover: Science, v. 315, p. 1533–1537.

 

Fig 1. Location of long historical and proxy sea-ice time series, with numbers indicating length in years (before AD 2000).