Monday, February 11, 2013, 12:00PM - 1:00PM
Abstract: The skill of streamflow predictions depends on both the uncertainty in estimates of hydrologic initial conditions at the start of the forecast period (i.e., snow, soil moisture), and uncertainty in weather forecasts and climate outlooks. In this presentation I will review recent advances in streamflow forecasting methods, including the transition from conceptual to physics-based hydrologic models, improved data assimilation schemes, improved local-scale weather forecasts, and more reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. I will also review key gaps in streamflow forecasting capabilities and the research needed to further improve the skill and statistical reliability of hydrologic predictions.
Bio: Martyn Clark is a Scientist III in the Hydrometeorological Applications Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Martyn’s research on the numerical modeling and prediction of streamflow has included coupling of hydrology and climate models, development of spatially distributed hydrologic models, development of methods for hydrologic data assimilation, and development of methods to quantify hydrologic model uncertainty. His current research spans three broad areas:
- developing methods to improve streamflow forecasts;
- developing innovative approaches for simulating hydrological processes; and
- understanding space-time variability in climate and hydrology, including understanding the impacts of climate change on regional water resources.
Martyn has authored or co-authored over 80 journal articles since receiving his PhD in 1998.
Free and open to the public