Monday, November 17, 2014, 12:00PM - 1:00PM
Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University
ARC room 620
Biodiversity and disease transmission: Discovery through geography and tangible analytics
We are only beginning to explore the various ways biodiversity may impact the provision of vital ecosystem services, including the mitigation of disease risk. In this seminar I share my group's journey studying the complex role that biodiversity and its management plays in the spread of sudden oak death—an emerging infectious disease killing millions of trees in coastal forests of California and Oregon. Our empirical findings are incorporated into dynamic simulations that explore alternative futures of disease spread based on multiple—and often competing—scenarios of biodiversity management. We are now in the beginning stages of making actionable models in tangible GIS environments, literally allowing stakeholders to gather around a geographically-realistic “sandbox” and visualize what-if scenarios with near real-time projected outcomes. This “quick envisioning” can speed decision making by eliminating non-starters and revealing tradeoffs that build consensus. From these experiences we glean three lessons: geography matters, time to action counts, and tangible analytics are needed for solutions to future outbreaks.
Free and open to the public.