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ATOC colloquium: N. Lovenduski: A change in the forecast: Ocean biogeochemistry over the next decade

Friday, October 05, 2018, 11:00AM - 12:00PM


Nikki Lovenduski




Observations collected over the past few decades and projections from climate models suggest that anthropogenic climate change has influenced and will continue to alter ocean biogeochemistry. Superimposed on the background of long-term changes in ocean biogeochemistry is natural variability that manifests on inter-annual to decadal timescales.  While there has been considerable research devoted to forecasting inter-annual to decadal variations (so-called “decadal predictions”) of the physical climate system, decadal predictions of ocean biogeochemistry remain relatively unexplored.

Here, we investigate the predictability and predictive skill of ocean biogeochemistry using a novel set of decadal forecasts of the Earth system. Our promising first results indicate that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake and marine phytoplankton productivity may be predictable several years in advance, with relevance for carbon emissions mitigation strategies and fisheries potential catch.

Please join us for coffee starting at 10:45 a.m.