Olson, D.J. , K. Hibbard, T.G.F. Kittel and J.M.O. Scurlock.  2001.   American Geophysical Union Spring Meeting, Boston, MA, 29 May-2 June 2001.

Abstract

Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions.  The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental driving variables represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region.  We will describe the increasing sophistication and confidence in model predictions that have resulted from the availability of well-documented compilations of data to run and validate models.  Results from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) illustrate the value of developing common driver data while the Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) exercise provides a unique approach to enhance the NPP data, model driver data, and model processes.  VEMAP is a multi-institutional, international effort addressing the response of biogeography and biogeochemistry to environmental variability in climate and other drivers in both space and time domains.  VEMAP is an intercomparison of models to determine their sensitivity to changing climate and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.  Climate, climate change scenarios, soil properties, and potential natural vegetation data sets were prepared as common boundary conditions and driving variables.  The highly structured nature of the intercomparison allowed rigorous analysis of results.  The EMDI workshops provided a venue for 17 modeling groups to compare their model outputs against net primary productivity (NPP) data for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5º grid cells.  Results of this complex task showed general agreement between model predictions and field measurements but with obvious differences that indicated areas for potential data and model improvement.  Data from both the VEMAP and the EMDI projects are available from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (http://www.daac.ornl.gov/).

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