Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)

Other Related Research —

The U.S. National Assessment
Herbaceous Response to Climate Variability in Temperate Montane Habitats
Modeling Arctic/Boreal Vegetation Response to Environmental Change
Coupled Ecosystem-Hydrologic Responses to Altered Climate and Other Forcing

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PHASE 1:  EQUILIBRIUM RESPONSE  | PHASE 2:  TRANSIENT DYNAMICS  | KEY PUBLICATIONS | BACK TO TOP

The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) is an ongoing multi-institutional, international effort addressing the response of biogeography and biogeochemistry to change in climate and other drivers in both space and time domains.  The objectives of VEMAP are the intercomparison of biogeochemistry and dynamic vegetation models and determination of their sensitivity to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and other sources of altered forcing.

VEMAP is funded by NASA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), USDA Forest Service, and US Department of Energy, with additional support from the National Science Foundation.

Equilibrium Responses — Phase 1. The first phase of the project evaluated equilibrium responses of the models to equilibrium climate change and doubled atmospheric CO2 levels across the conterminous United States.

Database. For Phase 1, the VEMAP1 Data Group at NCAR (T. Kittel and D. Schimel, PI's) generated gridded data layers of bioclimate, climate change scenarios, soil properties, and potential natural vegetation as common boundary conditions and driving variables for the models (Kittel et al. 1995 ABSTRACT, Rosenbloom and Kittel 1996 ON-LINE DOCUMENT). The set has both daily and monthly representations of the same long-term climate.

Bioclimate. In the development of the climate input data, we used spatial interpolation techniques that account for elevation and aspect along with statistical and empirical models for generating daily weather and estimating secondary variables (solar radiation, humidity) in order to maintain physical consistency among climate variables and between climate, vegetation, and topography. These techniques were implemented to generate an integrated dataset that realistically portrays the "bioclimate," i.e., those features of climate that control the distribution and function of ecosystems.

The VEMAP Phase 1 Database is available on the VEMAP1 data access page, on a CDROM (Kittel et al. 1996) and from the ORNL DAAC.

Model Intercomparison Results. Because the models were driven by a common dataset, differences in model results arose only from differences among model algorithms and their implementation rather than from differences in inputs.

In the VEMAP model intercomparison, model-based assessments of ecological sensitivity to altered climate and CO2 were strongly dependent on model assumptions and parameterizations.  Model results from VEMAP Phase 1 are reported in VEMAP Members (1995), Schimel et al. (1997), Pan et al. (1998), and Yates et al. (2000).   Selected model output files are available through the VEMAP1 results web page.

Additional, more detailed analyses of VEMAP model outputs including those of the surface water budget (Hibbard et al., submitted; Cienciala et al., submitted) and LAI (leaf area index; Drapek et al., submitted) are completed.

Database.  The VEMAP2 Data Group at NCAR, in collaboration with the Geophysical Statistics Project at NCAR, developed the model input datasets required for Phase 2 (DESCRIPTION).   These include a historical (1895-1994) gridded dataset of climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, and wind speed; Kittel et al. 1997; ABSTRACT) and transient climate change scenarios based on coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM experiments, including those with elevated greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.  ANIMATIONS

Model Intercomparison Results.  The first round of VEMAP2 modeling results appeared in Science (Schimel et al. 2000; ABSTRACT).  Additional analyses are in progress (Neilson et al., Running et al.).

Cienciala, E., T.G.F. Kittel, S.W. Running, K.A. Hibbard, H. Fisher, and VEMAP Participants. Water balance of the VEMAP Phase 1 biogeochemistry and biogeography models: II. Sensitivity to altered climate, CO2, and vegetation distribution. Global Change Biology, submitted.

Drapek, R.J., R.P. Neilson, and VEMAP Members. Continental-scale simulations of leaf area index: VEMAP model intercomparisons. Global Change Biology, under revision.

Hibbard, K.A., T.G.F. Kittel, S.W. Running, E. Cienciala, and VEMAP Participants. Water balance of the VEMAP Phase 1 biogeochemistry and biogeography models: I. Comparison of simulated runoff with observed streamflow. Global Change Biology, submitted.

Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP Modeling Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22: 857-862. ABSTRACT

Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, H.H. Fisher, A.W. Grimsdell, VEMAP Participants, C. Daly, and E.R. Hunt, Jr. 1996. The VEMAP Phase 1 Database: An Integrated Input Dataset for Ecosystem and Vegetation Modeling for the Conterminous United States. CD-ROM. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.  Dataset and documentation.

Kittel, T.G.F., J.A. Royle, C. Daly, N.A. Rosenbloom, W.P. Gibson, H.H. Fisher, D.S. Schimel, L.M. Berliner, and VEMAP2 Participants. 1997. A gridded historical (1895-1993) bioclimate dataset for the conterminous United States. Pages 219-222, in: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology, 20-24 October 1997, Reno, NV. American Meteorological Society, Boston. ABSTRACT

Pan, Y., J.M. Melillo, A.D. McGuire, D.W. Kicklighter, L.F. Pitelka, K. Hibbard, L.L. Pierce, S.W. Running, D.S. Ojima, W.J. Parton, D.S. Schimel, and other VEMAP Members.  1998.  Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP). Oecologia 114: 389-404.

Rosenbloom, N., and T.G.F. Kittel. 1996. A User’s Guide to the VEMAP Phase I Database. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-431+IA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. 53 pp. ON-LINE DOCUMENT

Schimel, D.S., VEMAP Participants, and B.H. Braswell. 1997. Spatial variability in ecosystem processes at the continental scale: Models, data, and the role of disturbance. Ecological Monographs 67: 251-271.

Schimel, D., J. Melillo, H. Tian, A.D. McGuire, D. Kicklighter, T. Kittel, N. Rosenbloom, S. Running, P. Thornton, D. Ojima, W. Parton, R. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Neilson, and B. Rizzo.  2000.  Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems of the United States.  Science 287:2004-2006. ABSTRACT

VEMAP Members. 1995. Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9:407-437.

Yates, D.N., T.G.F. Kittel, and R.F. Cannon.  2000.  Comparing the correlative Holdridge model to mechanistic biogeographical models for assessing vegetation distribution response to climatic change. Climatic Change 44:59-87. ABSTRACT

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The U.S. National Assessment

National Assessment Synthesis Team and others.  2000.  Climate Change and America. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States. Overview. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.

Ojima, D., L. Garcia, E. Elgaali, K. Miller, T.G.F. Kittel, and J. Lackett. 1999. Potential climate change impacts on water resources in the Great Plains.  American Water Resources Association Journal 35:1443-1454. ABSTRACT

Herbaceous Response to Climate Variability in Temperate Montane Habitats

Kittel, T.G.F. 1998. Effects of climatic variability on herbaceous phenology and observed species richness in temperate montane habitats, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada. Madroño 45:75-84. . ABSTRACT

Modeling Arctic/Boreal Vegetation Response to Environmental Change Kittel, T.G.F., W.L. Steffen, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2000. Global and regional modeling of arctic-boreal vegetation distribution and its sensitivity to altered forcing. Global Change Biology 6 (Suppl. 1): 1-18. ABSTRACT

Eugster, W., W.R. Rouse, R.A. Pielke, Sr., J. P. McFadden, D.D. Baldocchi, T.G.F. Kittel, F.S. Chapin, III, G.E. Liston, P.L. Vidale, E. Vaganov, and S. Chambers. 2000. Land-atmosphere energy exchange in arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate. Global Change Biology 6 (Suppl. 1): 84-115.

Coupled Ecosystem-Hydrologic Responses to Altered Climate and Other Forcing

Baron, J.S., M.D. Hartman, T.G.F. Kittel, L.E. Band, D.S. Ojima, and R.B. Lammers. 1998. Effects of land cover, water, redistribution, and temperature on ecosystem processes in the South Platte Basin. Ecological Applications 8:1037-1051.

Stohlgren, T.J., T.N. Chase, R.A. Pielke, Sr., T.G.F. Kittel, and J. Baron. 1998. Evidence that local land use practices influence regional climate, vegetation, and stream flow patterns in adjacent natural areas. Global Change Biology 4:495-504.

Poiani, K.A., W.C. Johnson, and T.G.F. Kittel. 1995. Sensitivity of a prairie wetland to increased temperature and seasonal precipitation changes. Water Resources Bulletin 31:283-294.

See also Joint Climate-Ecosystem-Hydrologic Responses to Altered Forcing
 

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