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Upper Air and Surface Forecasts for Vegetation field day in the Ribbon Forest 2/2/19 and Winter Ornithology field day 2/3/19

Saturday forecast as of Friday 2/1/19 5pm for 11,000':

  • Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph (see graph panel below left and corresponding map).
  • Check Niwot treeline (11,000') for latest NWS point forecast

 Avi Center (CAIC) - Colorado 11,000' forecast.  For the weekend (as of Friday 12noon), with discussion of upper air height patterns:

  • Upper level flow will turn southwesterly tonight [Friday] ahead of a low pressure trough (see map 2nd row, left: 11am MST, 2 Feb 500mb heights).  Clouds will move in on Saturday. Temperatures remain fairly warm, and winds will be increasing from the southwest.
  • Snow showers should start in the evening [Saturday], and begin in earnest after midnight. It looks like this initial wave (see map last row, left: for 5pm MST, 3 Feb 500mb heights) will bring a decent, if fast moving, shot of snow [for Sunday] (see map  last row, right: for 5pm MST, 3 Feb precipitation). Light snowfall and unsettled weather continues until a second, and possibly stronger, storm arrives Monday-Tuesday.


Forecast for Sunday as of Friday 2/1/19, 6pm:

  • Allenspark (8400' elev):  A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph.
  • Wild Basin (9200'): A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.


Niwot treeline (11,000') Point Forecast

Forecast Map for 11am MST






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