Avalanche Weather Forecasts
Meteorologists
work with avalanche forecasters, providing detailed, area-specific weather information for mountainous
areas. Avalanche forecasters integrate this information with their knowledge of snowpack and terrain
to create a more comprehensive avalanche hazard forecast that describes the stabillity of the snowpack and likelihood of avalanche occurrence. Even without detailed snowpack
data, avalanche potential can be estimated based on weather information alone (although the forecasts are
not as complete or accurate).
Like weather forecasting, avalanche forecasting is part science and art, part fact and judgment. Currently, no computer models can forecast avalanches with any degree of accuracy. The forecast problem is compounded by the number of weather variables involved, the complexity of the terrain, and the lack of onsite weather and snowpack information. This puts the burden on avalanche forecasters, who need skills honed by years of experience to make accurate decisions about the likelihood of avalanche occurrence.