Kittel, T.G.F., D. Nychka, N. Rosenbloom, S. Aulenbach, C. Kaufman, D. Yates, D. Schimel, D. Ojima, C. Daly, J.A. Royle, and VEMAP Members.  2000.  p. 134, in: The Ecological Society of America 85th Annual Meeting, August 6-10, 2000, Snowbird, Utah.  The Ecological Society of America, Washington, DC. 

Abstract

Climate varies across continental regions in characteristic spatial and temporal patterns that strongly influence vegetation dynamics and biogeochemical processes, such as disturbance regimes and carbon storage.  The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2 historical and future scenario climate dataset for the conterminous US was developed as inputs for the simulation of vegetation and ecosystem dynamics over the period 1895-2100, with future climates derived from coupled climate model experiments.  To understand the nature of the driving climates for ecological simulations, we evaluated spatial-temporal variability in seasonal thermal and moisture parameters (e.g., minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, Palmer Drought Severity Index, growing-degree days).  During the historical period, thermal variables exhibit spatially-extensive (often dipolar) oscillations across the conterminous US at interannual and decadal time scales.  Precipitation variability regimes are also prominent, but with characteristically shorter spatial scales and are more complex in time and space.  21st century climates, while dominated by trends in the means (driven by enhanced greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcings), exhibit strong patterns of spatial and temporal variability that are altered from those of the historical period.

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