Abstract

We compared regional biases and transient doubled CO2 sensitivities of nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) from six international climate modeling groups.  We evaluated biases and responses in winter and summer surface air temperatures and precipitation for seven subcontinental regions, including those in the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific Assessment. Regional biases were large and exceeded the variance among four climatological datasets, indicating that model biases were not primarily due to uncertainty in observations.  Model responses to altered greenhouse forcing were substantial (average temperature change=2.7±0.9 °C, range of precipitation change =-35 to +120% of control).  While coupled models include more climate system feedbacks than earlier GCMs implemented with mixed-layer ocean models, inclusion of a dynamic ocean alone did not improve simulation of long-term mean climatology nor increase convergence among model responses to altered greenhouse gas forcing.  On the other hand, features of some of the coupled models including flux adjustment (which may have simply masked simulation errors), high horizontal resolution, and estimation of screen height temperature contributed to improved simulation of long-term surface climate.  The large range of model responses was partly accounted for by inconsistencies in forcing scenarios and transient-simulation averaging periods.  Nonetheless, the models generally had greater agreement in their sensitivities than their controls did with observations. This suggests that consistent, large-scale response features from an ensemble of model sensitivity experiments may not depend on details of their representation of present-day climate.

Article available in PDF format at Springer/Climate Dynamics

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rev. 12 Apr 2000